How to Predict Ocean Waves - The Science and Art of Predicting the Nature of a Wave

  Surfers are often credited as being excellent wave predictors as their pastime involves an acute knowledge of gauging the size and depth of a wave in order to determine whether one can ride it. This type of guesswork is not what's driving experts who use state-of-the-art technology to predict massive waves that could cause serious harm to ships, sailing vessels, as well as result in damaging beach erosion. Here are some fascinating facts on the computer modelling software used for this purpose.

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1. The Scope

Wave prediction is a relatively new science that's been introduced and popularised by a NIWA scientist named Richard Gorman who employs computer modelling to predict various wave conditions around the world. Benefiting countless seafaring vessels as well as beaches, the wave predictions made with the use of computer modelling technology can help reduce soil erosion while also providing useful data for ships to stay out of the way of big waves that could potentially destroy them.  The science of predicting waves is steeped in mathematics while Gorman is also known to use up-to-date weather forecasts to better predict the size of the waves. The weather data collected by other researchers working for NIWA are fed into his computer modelling network and this data not only covers one side of the Pacific Ocean but both. Essentially this technology and prediction system covers the entire planet.

2. The Basics

Each geographical area of the world's oceans is divided into 120 square kilometre cells and the computer modelling network predicts the size of the waves in each cell. Gorman also employs another smaller grid, which divided the ocean into areas of 12 square kilometres so he can make predictions pertinent to those living close to New Zealand. The wave prediction unit of Richard Gorman's NIWA project is just one aspect of a complex network that also delves into tides, weather, storms, river flow speeds, and other climate-oriented events. The organisations that benefit most from these predictions and forecasts include port companies, regional councils, and oil exploration outfits.

3. Computer Modelling

In this context, the term "computer model" refers to a mathematical analysis of how energy travels from the wind to the waves and then how it moves across the seas before it eventually dissipates. The size of the waves, therefore, is ultimately decided by the wind as it is the wind blowing over the water that creates the ripples that then converts into swells of varying sizes. The waves themselves contain potential energy when they rise and fall while kinetic energy is also a part of all forms of moving water. The rate at which the wind is feeding energy into the waves is measured by a mathematical description that appears as a computer model for scientists to read. The modelling also explored aspects of how energy dissipates once a wave breaks as this transformation of energy can result in rapid or turbulent water movement.

4. The Use of Buoys

Computer-modelled predictions of wave size also employ data gathered by the buoys set up in strategic locations across the ocean. Buoys are known to provide crucial information including the wave direction, the height of the wave, as well as the wave period. Gorman combines this with data collected from satellites and radars. Vessels crossing South Asia Gateway Terminals and other similar terminals rely on this information to navigate the seas. This is due to the fact that buoys form an important part of wave measurement in Sri Lanka as technology for computer modelling is centralised in New Zealand.

5. Team Work and the Future

Working as a team, Gorman hopes to develop an even more sophisticated method for wave forecasting in the future as he admits "I can't do it all. In this area, there is a lot of data flowing around."